UFC

Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen prediction, odds, pick for UFC Rio

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After making his move to the Heavyweight Division, Vitor Petrino passed his first test with flying colors in notching a quick submission over Austen Lane. Lane, an extremely dangerous striker, had no answers for Petrino's grappling and eventually fell victim to giving his back up and the eventual submission. Petrino retains all of his athletic ability in this new division and the way he moves on the ground could become a problem for many fighters in the weight class.

Petrino is also consistently improving his striking game, which he'll need every bit of against a pressure boxer like Petersen. His takedown defense is a solid 58%, but it's worth noting that Petersen sports a 100% takedown defense rate and has never been threatened on the ground. If Petrino can become the first, he should be able to expose the holes in Petersen's submission defense.

Ultimately, Petrino's best chance to win this fight will be early on via submission. If he chooses to stand and strike with his opponent, he risks gassing out and allowing Petersen to throw combinations on him. The quicker Petrino can get Petersen out of there, the less he'll risk in a close striking bout on the scorecards.

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Why Thomas Petersen Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Don'Tale Mayes – U DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Thomas Petersen looked great in his last appearance against Don'Tale Mayes, out-striking his opponent a whopping 105-13 while landing nine takedowns. Petersen was extremely aggressive with his wrestling and didn't allow Mayes a second to breathe while constantly hitting him with strikes. He may take a different approach against a grappler like Petrino, so don't be surprised if we see a whole new side of Petersen in this fight.

On the feet, Petersen lands on 59% of his significant strikes while defending 57% of the shots coming back his way. His defensive guard on the feet is extremely tight and he's hard to truly hurt from strikes alone. Petrino has the power to hurt anyone, but Petersen can certainly turn the momentum if he's able to gas his opponent out in the later rounds.

Petersen's clearest path to victory in this fight will be waiting for Petrino to shoot and emphatically stuffing the takedowns. Petrino's cardio has been questionable in the past and at this heavyweight division, he risks gassing out even quicker. If Petersen is able to survive to the third round, he should be the more active fighter in terms of the striking exchanges.

Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick

This should be an extremely fun fight between two men willing to scrap. Both fighters have proved their knockout ability while also shining in the wrestling department. Vitor Petrino looks to be one of the better submission artists in the division, while Thomas Petersen is coming in off a nine-takedown performance and has shown an ability to hold his own on the feet as well.

Ultimately, I think Thomas Petersen will do a ton on the feet to frustrate the rhythm of Petrino. Whether or not Petrino can secure the takedowns will ultimately decide this fight – I think he'll be able to secure one and it'll be interesting to see what he's able to do with it after the fact.

We have to roll with Vitor Petrino for our final pick, but don't at all be surprised if Petersen is able to shift momentum in his favor on a number of occasions throughout this fight. We'll side with the total over as we see a likely decision.

Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick: Vitor Petrino (-298); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-200)

 

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