Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2, Iive! This time from the MIGHTY UFC Apex.

A hard sell, to be sure, but this is where we are as we approach the first quarter mark of 2025. Two years after their first meeting, the fringe middleweight contenders fight again in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 104 main event.

On the surface, this isn’t exactly a high-stakes rematch, though it’s certainly meaningful to the men involved. Vettori returns from a 20-month break from competition, hoping to regain his standing at 185 pounds, while Dolidze looks to not only avenge a past loss to Vettori, but extend his win streak to three and keep himself in the title mix.

Much has been said about the UFC’s seeming inability to do more than the bare minimum to pack its calendar with as many fights as humanly possible regardless of quality and Saturday’s show is unlikely to change people’s minds on that. But there are plenty of up-and-coming fighters looking to make an impact as well as hardened veterans out to prove they’ve still got one more run in them, so with that in mind, let’s get to the picks.

What: UFC Vegas 104

Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, March 15. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Here’s a weird fact: remember that Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev rematch we got last week out of nowhere? Well, that happened at UFC 286, the same card as Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 1, another rematch nobody expected (or asked for, really).

Let’s be optimistic and assume that like Gaethje vs. Fiziev, this middleweight runback also matches the first encounter’s level of entertainment. It wasn’t a bad fight, with Vettori clearly the more active fighter and Dolidze relying on his power to make up the difference. Vettori’s strategy proved superior in the end as Dolidze simply couldn’t match the Italian’s output.

Don’t expect much to be different this time around. Vettori has made a career out of out-lasting fighters he can’t out-grapple, relying on his impenetrable chin to get him through trouble spots. An extra two rounds to work with makes the circumstances even more ideal for Vettori, who cuts a fine five-round pace.

On the other hand, one could argue Dolidze now has 10 more minutes to find a finish, and what a feat that would be if he becomes the first fighter to put Vettori away inside the distance. Perhaps this time around we’ll see him mix in more grappling to change the complexion of the fight.

I see this playing out in similar fashion to their first fight though, with Vettori winning a hard-fought decision.

Pick: Vettori

Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski

There’s no nice way to put this: when Chidi Njokuani fights low-tier competition, he can shine; when he fights upper-tier competition, not so good. Elizeu Zaleski is upper-tier competition.

“Capoeira” hasn’t been a world beater over the past few years, but his strength of schedule is considerably tougher than Njokuani’s and that matters a lot when assessing this matchup. We know Zaleski has what it takes to hang with quality welterweights. He’s an exciting striker when he gets room to work, which is no guarantee if Njokuani decides to implore a more smothering style.

That said, Zaleski knows how to deal with pressure, and he’ll sting Njokuani with strikes as he marches in. This likely turns into a range kickboxing battle, which I favor Zaleski to win. A knockout might be too much to ask for this time around, so let’s say Zaleski on points.

Pick: Zaleski

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Kurt Holobaugh always comes to scrap, which is why I like what they’ve done here pairing him up with Alexander Hernandez. “The Great” sometimes needs to be coaxed out of his shell and I expect Holobaugh to force him to let his hands go. That should make for an enjoyable striking matchup, one that Hernandez can win if he can get out of his own head.

At times, Hernandez has been his own worst enemy, unable to pull the trigger against slower, less physically gifted opponents. It’s entirely possible he fails to initiate, lets Holobaugh set the pace, and drags his feet to a listless decision loss. We’ve seen this happen in past Hernandez fights and it’s frustrating to watch.

Call it an Ultimate Fighter bias (guilty!) but I just can’t pick against Holobaugh in this fight, both because I think his savvy is too much for Hernandez and the fact that these are exactly the kinds of matchups that usually trip Hernandez up.

I have Holobaugh taking a decision.

Pick: Holobaugh

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson

It’s no secret that Da’Mon Blackshear wants to get in the cage and use his strong frame to twist his opponents into submission. But he’s developing his all-around game, too, and he showed much-improved striking to set up his first-round finish of Cody Stamann in his most recent outing.

Cody Gibson is a great matchup for Blackshear right now. The 17-year veteran has seen it all and he’s going to make Blackshear work wherever the fight goes. Though Gibson isn’t in his prime, his knowledge of the game means he’s rarely outclassed and if Blackshear falters in the slightest, Gibson could steal the win here.

Blackshear is still searching for consistency, so a win over Gibson is exactly what he needs to prove that he’s not just an also-ran at 135 pounds. He gets the tap-out in the first or second round.

Pick: Blackshear

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Finger of shame to you, Diyar Nurgozhay, for missing weight by over four pounds for your UFC debut. Shame, shame, shame.

How much does this hurt Nurgozhay’s chances of going 1-0 to start his UFC career? That’s a matter of perspective. On the one hand, the ridiculous miss could be a sign that he didn’t even bother cutting weight and thus won’t be suffering any ill effects from that process; on the other hand, it could be viewed as a lack of effort and discipline, and an indicator he’s not competing at his best mentally. It’s anybody’s guess.

Normally I’d lean towards the latter, but typically when a fighter is this heavily favored (-400 on FanDuel), the weight miss usually doesn’t significantly hurt their chances. I’m curious to see if Brendson Ribeiro works to mix the martial arts and possibly turn this into a grappling battle, but recent history tells us this one will stay standing.

In that case, I like Nurgozhay to patiently close the distance and wait for Ribeiro to make a mistake before exploding with punches in close. It might not be a bell-to-bell thriller, but Nurgozhay should find himself another highlight-reel finish.

Pick: Nurgozhay

Seung Woo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos

Kevin Vallejos makes his UFC debut after earning a contract in his second appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. The 23-year-old Argentinian’s only pro loss came in his first Contender Series outing, when he took Jean Silva to a competitive decision. He’s heavily favored against Seung Woo Choi, a veteran of 10 UFC fights in a 1-4 slump, and for good reason.

Size and reach will be an issue for Vallejos against the tall Choi (a drop to bantamweight could be in Vallejos’ future), but he’ll make up for it with sharp boxing and footwork. As experienced as Choi is, his defense is shaky, and that won’t fly against the hard-swinging Vallejos.

If this looks like a showcase fight on paper, it’s because it is. So the pressure is on Vallejos to deliver.

Vallejos by first-round knockout.

Pick: Vallejos

Preliminaries

Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann

SuYoung You def. A.J. Cunningham

Josias Musasa def. Carlos Vera

Stephanie Luciano def. Sam Hughes

Andre Lima def. Daniel Barez

Josiane Nunes def. Priscila Cachoeira

Carli Judice def. Yuneisy Duben