The UFC is back in Brazil, the flyweight title is on the line at the top of the bill.
UFC 301 (pay-per-view/ESPN/ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro.
(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)
Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.
Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig
Records: Borralho (15-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC), Craig (17-7-1 MMA, 9-7-1 UFC)
Past five: Borralho 5-0, Craig 2-3
Division: Middleweight
Rankings: Borralho No. 15
Odds (as of 05.03.24): Borralho -650, Craig +470
Junkie pick results: Borralho 11, Craig 0
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
Records: Pereira (30-11 MMA, 8-2 UFC), Potieria (21-5 MMA, 2-3 UFC)
Past five: Pereira 5-0, Potieria 2-3
Division: Middleweight
Rankings: None
Odds (as of 05.03.24): Pereira -600, Potieria +455
Junkie pick results: Pereira 11, Potieria 0
Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith
Records: Petrino (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), Smith (37-19 MMA, 12-9 UFC)
Past five: Petrino 5-0, Smith 2-3
Division: Light heavyweight
Rankings: Smith No. 12, Petrino honorable mention
Odds (as of 05.03.24): Petrino -575, Smith +425
Junkie pick results: Petrino 11, Smith 0
Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez
Records: Aldo (31-8 MMA, 13-7 UFC), Martinez (19-4 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Past five: Aldo 3-2, Martinez 5-0
Division: Bantamweight
Rankings: Martinez honorable mention
Odds (as of 05.03.24): Aldo +125, Martinez -150
Junkie pick results: Martinez 6, Aldo 5
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
Records: Pantoja (27-5 MMA, 11-3 UFC), Erceg (12-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC)
Past five: Pantoja 5-0, Erceg 5-0
Division: Flyweight
Rankings: Pantoja No. 2, No. 14 pound-for pound; Erceg No. 13
Odds (as of 05.03.24): Pantoja -185, Erceg +155
Junkie pick results: Pantoja 9, Erceg 2
Check out all the main card picks below.
UFC 301 main card picks
| Pantoja vs. Erceg |
Aldo vs. Martinez |
Petrino vs. Smith |
Pereira vs. Potieria |
Borralho vs. Craig |
|
| MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 71-40 |
 Pantoja (67%) |
 Aldo (51%) |
 Petrino (82%) |
 Pereira (92%) |
 Borralho (81%) |
| Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 76-35  2014 Champion |
Pantoja |
Aldo |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Nolan King @mma_kings 72-39 2023 Champion |
Pantoja |
Aldo |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Ken Hathaway @1khathaway 71-40 2018, 2022 Champion |
Pantoja |
Aldo |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 71-40 |
Pantoja |
Aldo |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Matthew Wells @MrMWells 68-43 |
 Erceg |
 Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Matt Erickson @MattE 68-43 |
Pantoja |
Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 68-43 |
Erceg |
Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Simon Samano @SJSamano 66-45 |
Pantoja |
Aldo |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Brian Garcia @thegoze 61-50 2017 Champion |
Pantoja |
Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 58-53 |
Pantoja |
Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
| George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 52-59 |
Pantoja |
Martinez |
Petrino |
Pereira |
Borralho |
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 301.
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