Magomed Ankalaev holds a distinct edge over Alex Pereira heading into UFC 320 due to his superior grappling pedigree and measured fight IQ. Pereira’s power is undeniable, but Ankalaev’s ability to neutralize devastating strikers with relentless pressure and calculated distance management has been the blueprint for his career.

Ankalaev showcased his composed striking and takedown defense in their previous meeting, consistently stuffing Pereira’s offense and forcing him into deep waters. His background in sambo and disciplined approach to maintaining control prevents Pereira from landing his signature left hook with frequency.

Pereira struggled in prolonged exchanges last time, appearing visibly frustrated as Ankalaev’s clinch work and positional awareness sapped his explosiveness round by round. Ankalaev’s cardio also gives him a notable advantage, allowing him to maintain pace and output beyond the third frame.

By mixing timely takedowns with technical counter combinations, Ankalaev can accumulate damage without giving Pereira open windows to detonate his knockout power. The Russian’s experience in five-round championship fights means he can manage the scorecards and potentially finish late, capitalizing on any defensive lapses.

Ultimately, Ankalaev's diverse skill set, strategic discipline, and proven championship mettle position him to defeat Pereira at UFC 320.

Why Alex Pereira will win

• Last Fight: (L) Magomed Ankalaev – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 (10 KO/TKO)

Alex Pereira’s path to victory at UFC 320 centers on his unmatched knockout power and world-class kickboxing pedigree, posing a constant threat to Magomed Ankalaev at all ranges. Pereira’s striking arsenal, highlighted by his lethal left hook and crisp leg kicks, can break Ankalaev’s rhythm and force defensive mistakes early.

Learning from their first encounter, Pereira is expected to be more aggressive in defending against clinch attempts and executing sharp counters in close quarters. By maintaining pressure and chopping at Ankalaev’s lead leg, he can disrupt the Russian’s movement, eliminating the space Ankalaev prefers to use for his tactical setups.

Pereira’s ability to close distance and land with precision can alter the course of any round abruptly. If Ankalaev overcommits on takedown attempts or lingers at midrange too long, Pereira’s timing and finishing instincts could result in yet another highlight-reel knockout.

Additionally, Pereira’s experience in five-round battles and recent improvements in takedown defense bolster his chances of turning defensive scrambles into damaging offense. If he dictates the pace and keeps Ankalaev guessing, Pereira is fully capable of reclaiming his title in spectacular fashion at UFC 320.

Final Magomed Ankalaev-Alex Pereira prediction & pick

The UFC 320 main event sees Magomed Ankalaev entering as the betting favorite and defending his light heavyweight title against Alex Pereira in a highly anticipated rematch. Their first bout at UFC 313 in March saw Ankalaev stifle Pereira’s usually devastating offense, winning a unanimous decision behind superior cage control, volume striking, and relentless pressure.

Pereira showed formidable takedown defense in the first encounter, stuffing all attempts but struggled with Ankalaev’s pace and clinch work, which drained his explosiveness and kept him from finding his striking rhythm.

The Russian’s blueprint—mixing forward pressure with well-timed strikes and grinding clinch exchanges—proved to be the difference and remains a tactical advantage in the rematch. If Ankalaev applies even more urgency, he could further capitalize on Pereira’s tendency to retreat under duress and rack up early points on the scorecards.

While Pereira’s fight-ending power always looms, Ankalaev’s composure under fire and ever-improving striking present a formidable puzzle for the Brazilian. Vegas odds reflect this reality, posting Ankalaev as a -265 favorite and Pereira as a +210 underdog, signaling market confidence in Ankalaev’s consistency.

Unless Pereira can flip the script by upping his aggression and forcing Ankalaev into mistakes, expect the champion’s pace, defense, and strategic discipline to win him another clear decision—and possibly even a late stoppage—on Saturday night.

Final Magomed Ankalaev-Alex Pereira Prediction & Pick: Magomed Ankalaev (-285), Over 3.5 Rounds (-130)